Chapter 11
Demographic Studies
Introduction
The allocation of land uses and amount of services to be
provided are based on the anticipated population to be served. This chapter will review the population and
housing characteristics of Waynesboro Borough and
It is useful to begin by considering the pattern of
residential development that has occurred so far. The growth pattern of the Region has been
strongly affected by the surrounding metropolitan areas of Hagerstown,
Frederick, the Baltimore/Washington D.C. suburbs, as well as York, Harrisburg,
and to a lesser extent Gettysburg.
Future population growth will be contingent on the provision of a
variety of community and public services to the communities such as public
water and sewer services, highway improvements, economic development
initiatives, and the impact of the redevelopment of Fort Ritchie in nearby
Cascade, Maryland.
There is land available for new residential development in
This chapter includes tables that show past and present
conditions as well as projections of future growth. This information is intended to assist local
officials in the decision-making process, as well as point out opportunities
for intermunicipal cooperation.
Historic
Population Growth and Trends
The rate of population growth over time can provide
insight into how the population may increase in the years to come. The following graph shows how the population
has changed over time in each municipality as well as for the Region.
Figure 11.1: Total Population Growth
SOURCE:
Most American suburbs showed significant spurts
in population in the years immediately following World War II. The chart shows that this trend was not
present in the Region, particularly as
In
The
2005 census estimate shows a slight change to the trend in the Borough,
however, future censuses will show if this was truly a change to the sigmoidal trend
(i.e., the 2010 census will show an even higher rate of growth for the current
decade) or if this slight increase is simply an adjustment to the trend
line.
Figure
11.2: Basic Demographic Characteristics
This
data included in this table will be the basis of the remainder of the chapter. All data is based upon the 2000 Census unless
otherwise noted.
|
|
WASHINGTONTOWNSHIP |
|
REGION TOTAL |
|
Total Population 2000 (2005 estimate) |
11,559 (11,884) |
9,614 (9,700) |
21,173 (21,584) |
|
Total Households |
4,577 |
4,228 |
8,805 |
|
Total Families |
3,469 |
2,555 |
6,024 |
|
Racial Composition |
|
|
|
|
White |
11,221 (97.1%) |
9,153 (95.2%) |
20,374 (96.2%) |
|
African-American |
117 (1.0%) |
252 (2.6%) |
369 (1.7%) |
|
Hispanic (of any race) |
93 (0.8%) |
148 (1.5%) |
241 (1.1%) |
|
Asian and Pacific Islander |
108
(0.9%) |
49
(0.5%) |
157 (0.7%) |
|
Other, including mixed racial composition* |
39 (0.3%) |
65
(0.7%) |
104 (0.5%) |
|
Household Characteristics |
|
|
|
|
Average number of persons |
2.52 |
2.26 |
# |
|
Married-couple households |
3,001 |
1,863 |
4,864 |
|
Total households with children under 18 |
1,398 |
1,251 |
2,649 |
|
Female-headed households |
324 |
510 |
844 |
|
Non-family Households |
1,108 |
1,673 |
2,781 |
|
Householder living alone |
937 |
1,438 |
2,375 |
|
Householder 65 years + |
420 |
649 |
1,069 |
|
Age Characteristics |
|
|
|
|
Median age |
40 |
36.5 |
# |
|
Percentage of persons under 19 |
2,956 (25.6%) |
2,465 (25.6%) |
5,241 (25.6%) |
|
Percentage of persons aged 19-34 |
1,862 (16.1%) |
2,128 (22.1%) |
3,990 (18.8%) |
|
Percentage of persons aged 35-44 |
1,907 (16.5%) |
1,388 (14.4%) |
3,295 (15.6%) |
|
Percentage of persons aged 45-64 |
3,006 (26%) |
1,944 (20.2%) |
4,950 (23.4%) |
|
Percentage of persons aged 65 and over |
1,828 (15.8%) |
1,689 (17.6%) |
3,517 (16.6%) |
|
Income Characteristics |
|
|
|
|
Median household income |
$45,165 |
$31,574 |
# |
|
Median family income |
$51,791 |
$39,951 |
# |
|
Per capita income |
$20,673 |
$17,063 |
# |
|
Persons below poverty line |
450 (3.9%) |
980 (10.3%) |
1,430 (6.8%) |
|
Families below poverty line |
91 (2.6%) |
181 (7.0%) |
272 (4.5%) |
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000, 2005
*When reporting Hispanic or mixed race, the total
percentages may add to greater than 100% because individuals report more than
one race.
#
This data cannot be determined for the Region from available information.
Figure
11.3: Regional Population Trends
|
Municipality |
1990 Population |
1980-1990 %
change |
2000
Population |
1990-2000 %
change |
|
|
9,578 |
-1.52% |
9,614 |
+0.003% |
|
|
11,119 |
+ 15.6% |
11,559 |
+3.95% |
|
|
5,704 |
-1.52% |
5,846 |
+2.5% |
|
|
10,107 |
+8.37% |
12,504 |
+23.7% |
|
|
11,930 |
+4.01% |
12,284 |
+2.9% |
|
|
11,893 |
+12.55% |
13,100 |
+10.1% |
|
|
121,082 |
+6.56% |
129,313 |
+6.8% |
SOURCES:
Socioeconomic Data
The
decennial census gathers a wide variety of data in addition to the raw count of
persons. The data on household size, age,
and income, can give insight into how the composition of Region’s residents is
changing. These are the parameters that
are most useful for planning purposes as they allow us to make projections
relative to housing and land use issues.
The following topics refer to Figure 11.2, Basic Demographic
Characteristics.
Household and Age Characteristics – The majority of housing in the Region, particularly
the Township, is in the form of single-family detached homes: an observation
that is supported by empirical data, as shown later in this chapter. This observation suggests that many residents
live in family units with children. The
data shows that the Borough has smaller households on average than the
Township, including a higher proportion of people living alone. Finally, these data should be reviewed with
the understanding that the Census Bureau defines “household” as “all the people
who occupy a housing unit as their usual place of residence.” This includes individuals who live alone as
well as any combination of people who may reside together. “Family” is a type of household, and is
defined as “two or more people who reside together and who are related by
birth, marriage, or adoption.”
Typically, the average family size is larger than the average household
size.
An analysis of the age characteristics of the
community is useful for estimating demand for public services, as different age
groups have differing service needs. Age
composition data has long been recognized as a critical element for planning
school and recreation facilities, with projections of age compositions being
particularly helpful in determining long-range facility needs and land
requirements for such facilities. Age
data also help to define stages of the life cycle that each have characteristic
activity patterns, household moving behavior, and demands for housing and
various community facilities and services.
·
The 19 and under
age group is the school-aged population, which has planning implications
regarding school and recreation facilities and programs.
·
Young adults,
aged between 19 and 34 years, are just entering the labor force and typically
prefer rental housing. This group is
likely to produce the most children, and tends to be highly mobile.
·
Those aged
between 34 and 44 comprise the young labor force and are likely to have
families. This group tends to be less
mobile than the 19 to 34 year olds.
·
Individuals in
the mature labor force, aged 45 to 64, tend to be more settled and at the
height of their earning power.
·
Those 65 years
and older comprise the senior sector of the population. They generally do not work, or work part
time, and exhibit higher rates of demand for health care, public transit
services, and special recreation services.
Traditionally, this sector has been characterized by limited purchasing
power. While this is still more typical,
a growing proportion of the senior population has significant disposable
income.
Ethnicity – Ethnicity, or “race,” is defined by the Census Bureau
as a type of self-identification that has been historically significant for
socio-economic and cultural reasons. For
the 2000 census, individuals could identify themselves as “White,” “Black or
African American,” “Asian,” “Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander,” “Some
Other Race,” and, starting with the 2000 census, “Two or More Races.” The census also provided for separate
identification of Latino persons, who may be of any “race.”
·
The racial
composition of the Region is very homogenous, even by the standards of
·
The data on
minority populations is difficult to gather due to the fact that the 2000
census was the first where respondents were allowed to indicate more than one
racial group. For the purposes of our
analysis here, we included mixed-race individuals with the “other” category; in
previous censuses, such persons may have identified themselves with another
group.
Figure
11.4: Education Characteristics
|
persons 25 years
and older |
|
|
region |
|||
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
1990 |
2000 |
1990 |
2000 |
|
No High School Diploma |
1,835 (28.2%) |
1,200 (18.5%) |
1,730 (23.6%) |
1,222 (15.1%) |
3,565 (25.7%) |
2,422 (16.6%) |
|
With High School diploma |
2,878 (44.1%) |
2,999 (46.1%) |
3,096 (42.2%) |
3,609 (44.6%) |
5,974
(43.1%) |
6,608
(45.3%) |
|
Some college, no degree |
642 (9.8%) |
1,130 (17.4%) |
1,031 (14%) |
1,368 (16.9%) |
1,673
(12.1%) |
2,498
(17.1%) |
|
With Associate’s (2-year) Degree |
304 (4.7%) |
355 (3.5%) |
367 (5%) |
620 (7.7%) |
671
(4.8%) |
975 (6.7%) |
|
With Bachelor’s Degree |
504 (7.7%) |
571 (8.8%) |
706 (9.6%) |
683 (8.4% |
1,213
(8.7%) |
1,254 (8.6%) |
|
With Graduate Degree |
359 (5.5%) |
247 (3.8%) |
411 (5.6%) |
583 (7.2%) |
606 (4.4%) |
830 (5.7%) |
SOURCE:
Education and income are generally linked, as it has
been repeatedly shown that higher levels of educational attainment have a positive
correlation with income. This trend is
not as evident in the
Figures 11.2 and 11.4 reveal the following information:
·
In 2000, Township
residents had a higher level of income than the Borough. By 2000, the Borough still had a higher
proportion of high-school graduates than the Township, but they were nearly
equal in the proportion of college graduate.
·
The income
figures show the effect of larger households and families. The Township’s household
and family income is significantly higher than the same figures for the
Borough, however, the difference among per capita income is less pronounced.
·
It appears that
the Region has become relatively more educated during the 1990’s. In 1990, over 25% of persons 25 or older did
not have a high school diploma. By 2000,
that number had dropped to 16.6%.
Persons attaining college-level degrees have also increased.
Housing Trends
Figure 11.5: Basic Housing & Occupancy Characteristics
All figures from
2000 Census
|
|
|
|
REGION
TOTAL |
|||
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
1990 |
2000 |
1990 |
2000 |
|
Owner-occupied
housing units |
2,169 |
2,177 |
3,346 |
3,861 |
5,515 |
6,038 |
|
Renter-occupied
housing units |
1,976 |
2,051 |
810 |
716 |
2,786 |
2,767 |
|
Total
Occupied Housing Units |
4,145 |
4,228 |
4,156 |
4,577 |
8,301 |
8,805 |
|
Persons per owner-occupied
unit |
2.49 |
2.41 |
2.71 |
2.54 |
* |
* |
|
Persons
per renter-occupied unit |
2.07 |
2.09 |
2.51 |
2.42 |
* |
* |
|
Vacant
housing units |
199 |
405
(8.7%) |
209 |
263 (5.4%) |
408 |
668 (7.1%) |
|
Total
All Housing Units |
4,344 |
4,633 |
4,365 |
4,840 |
8,7094 |
9,473 |
SOURCE:
Figure 11.5 above shows housing and occupancy rates
from 1990 to 2000.
Figure 11.6 illustrates the
number of housing units by type for both municipalities.
Figure 11.6: Housing Statistics
|
|
|
|
region |
|||
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
1990 |
2000 |
1990 |
2000 |
|
Single-family detached
units |
2,006 |
2,179 |
3,344 |
3,862 |
5,350 |
6,041 |
|
Single-family attached
units |
587 |
768 |
171 |
203 |
758 |
971 |
|
Units in multi-unit
structures (2 or more units) |
1,688 |
1,636 |
337 |
291 |
2,025 |
1,927 |
|
Mobile homes |
29 |
69 |
466 |
465 |
495 |
534 |
SOURCE:
Single-Family
Detached Dwellings – Within both
municipalities, single-family detached dwellings represent the single largest
type of housing provided. In
Single-Family Attached Dwellings – Described as “one-unit attached dwellings,” this
category includes row houses, duplexes, and single dwelling units that are
attached to non-residential units by a vertical dividing wall. Dwellings
in the Region included in this category in 2000 was just over 10.0%
Multi-Unit Structures – This category includes apartment buildings, townhouses,
and apartment conversions. As a
region, this type of dwelling makes up 20.3% of the occupied housing units.
Mobile Homes – The majority of mobile homes are found in
Figure
11.7: Population Projections
Numbers shown in the “1990 census”, “2000 census”, and
“2005 EST” columns are as provided by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Numbers in the “2010 and 2020 PROJ.” columns
are the projections from the 2006 projections completed by the PA Department of
Environmental Resources (PADEP).
|
|
1990 CENSUS |
2000 CENSUS |
2005 EST |
2010 PROJ |
2020 PROJ |
|
|
9,578 |
9,614 |
9,700 |
9,792 |
10,167 |
|
|
11,119 |
11,559 |
11,884 |
12,885 |
14,342 |
|
REGION |
20,697 |
21,173 |
21,584 |
22,677 |
24,509 |
|
|
121,082 |
129,313 |
137,409 |
140,540 |
152,733 |
SOURCES: US Census; PA DEP, 2006
From the point of view of land use planning, the most
readily obvious usefulness of these population projections is that they give us
the ability to estimate the number of new housing units that will be required
to accommodate the new population. Where those units will be accommodated
will be discussed in the Future Land Use and Housing Plan.
Figure 11.8:
Housing Need Projections
The Region totals are the sum of the Borough and Township
numbers. Figure 11.2 provides average
household sizes for each municipality. Dividing
the average household size by the projected population will result in an estimate
of required housing units.
|
|
2000 CENSUS |
2010 EST |
2020 EST |
|
Borough population |
9, 614 |
9,792 |
10,167 |
|
Borough housing requirement @2.26 persons/household |
4,228* |
4332
|
4,498 |
|
Township population |
11,559 |
12,885 |
14,342 |
|
Township housing requirement @2.52 persons/household |
4,577* |
5,113 |
5,691 |
|
REGION POPULATION |
21,173 |
22,677 |
24,509 |
|
REGION HOUSING
REQUIREMENT |
8,805* |
9,445 |
10,189 |
SOURCE:
* Total existing occupied housing units as of 2000
Taking the projected housing need, the next step will be
to calculate how much land must be provided for residential use, based upon
some projected housing density for new construction. This will be also addressed in the Future
Land Use and Housing Plan.
Planning
Considerations
The
data presented in this chapter validates the need to plan for future
residential development. Although the
Region’s population increases from 1980-2000 have been modest, the recent
influx of new development indicates that this trend is about to change. Factors
for this high rate of growth include the ease of access to employment centers,
the availability of sanitary sewerage and water supply, and a high quality of
life.
PA Route 16,
Interstate 81, and proximity to US Route 15 provide the Region with easy access
to Frederick, Washington D.C., Harrisburg, Gettysburg, and other larger urban centers,
as well as access to the Pennsylvania Turnpike.
An increasing number of commuters, including many who have moved to the Region
from
Using Figure 11.8 as an initial
guide, the Region must accommodate an estimated 1,384 additional units by the
year 2020. The Future Land Use and
Housing plan will include a detailed discussion on the recommended development
densities and acreage needed to accommodate this additional development.